Climate Change Scenarios for Prediction of Freshwater Snails Using Classification and Regression Tree (CART): Egyptian Delta Governorates as Case Study

Theodor Bilharz Research Institute

Bibliographic Information

Authors: Saad-Hussein A.; Ismail N.M.M.; Zanaty N.; Ali S.E.; Abdel-Motleb A.

Journal: Egyptian Journal of Aquatic Biology and Fisheries

Publisher: Egyptian Society for the Development of Fisheries and Human Health

Publication Date: 1 July 2025

Volume / Issue: Volume 29 / Issue 4

Pages: 3191–3211

ISSN: 11106131

DOI: 10.21608/ejabf.2025.449765

Scopus: View on Scopus

Document Type: Article

Access: All Open Access; Gold Open Access

Authors and Affiliations

Saad-Hussein A., Environmental and Occupational Medicine Department, Environment and Climate Change Research Institute, National Research Centre, Giza, Egypt; Ismail N.M.M., Environmental Research Departmet, Theodor Bilharz Research Institute, Giza, Egypt; Zanaty N., National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences, Cairo, Egypt; Ali S.E., Environmental Research Departmet, Theodor Bilharz Research Institute, Giza, Egypt; Abdel-Motleb A., Environmental Research Departmet, Theodor Bilharz Research Institute, Giza, Egypt

Abstract

Global warming due to climate change may alter the characteristics of freshwater habitats. Rising water temperatures increase evaporation and decrease oxygen concentration, which in turn may affect the survival and reproduction of freshwater gastropod snails. This study aimed to predict the presence and abundance of freshwater snails in six Delta governorates (Kafr El-Sheikh, Damietta, Menoufia, Gharbia, Dakahlia, and Beheira) during two survey periods (2010–2016 and 2019–2020). Predictions were made in relation to physicochemical water parameters—temperature, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), dissolved oxygen (DO), and pH—as well as annual maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) atmospheric temperatures, using Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis. The field survey revealed that the highest percentages of collected live snails were recorded in Beheira (48.9%, 44.7%, and 34.5% during winter, summer, and autumn, respectively) and in Damietta during spring (29%). CART analysis identified Tmax as the most important variable influencing snail occurrence and distribution in five governorates (Damietta, Menoufia, Gharbia, Dakahlia, and Beheira), while Tmin was most influential in two governorates (Kafr El-Sheikh and Dakahlia). In Damietta, conductivity together with Tmax were the only two variables found to be 100% significant. These results suggest that changing atmospheric temperatures due to global warming may alter the presence and distribution of freshwater snails in their habitats. Therefore, atmospheric temperature is considered a key determinant that plays a crucial role in shaping the diversity of freshwater snails, including those that transmit diseases. © 2025, Egyptian Society for the Development of Fisheries and Human Health. All rights reserved.

Keywords

Atmospheric temperature; CART analysis; Climate change; Freshwater snails; Physico-chemical parameters; SDG 3, 13, 14

Citation Information

Scopus Citations: 1

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